Trial-heat model shows Clinton in the lead

The Trial-heat model published an updated forecast of the election result. According to the model, Clinton will achieve 52.1% of the two-party vote share, whereas Trump will end up with 47.9%.

Putting the results in context

As any other method, models are subject to bias. As a result, a good strategy is to not rely too much on the results of a single econometric model. Rather than trusting the results from single models, the best practice scientific advice is to look at combined models or, even better, a combined forecast that uses different methods and data.

Results in comparison to other econometric models

Looking at an average of econometric models, Clinton's two-party vote share is currently at 49.8%. In comparison to numbers in the Trial-heat model Clinton's econometric model average is 2.3 percentage points lower.

The Trial-heat model in comparison with PollyVote's prediction

The most recent PollyVote predicts Clinton to gain 52.9% of the two-party vote. PollyVote currently predicts Clinton to gain 0.8 percentage points more compared to the results of the Trial-heat model.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

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