Minnesota: Clinton with small advantage in Star Tribune*Star Tribune* poll
Star TribuneStar Tribune published the results of a new poll. In this poll, respondents from Minnesota were asked for whom they will vote: Democrat candidate Hillary Clinton or Republican candidate Donald Trump.
Star TribuneStar Tribune poll results
The results show that 44.0% of respondents will vote for former New York Senator Hillary Clinton, whereas 38.0% would vote for businessman Donald Trump.
The poll was conducted from September 12 to September 14 with 625 likely voters. There is a sampling error of +/-4.0 percentage points. Considering this error margin, the race is currently a statistical tie.
Putting the results in context
As a general rule, however, you should not have too much faith in the results of single polls, because they often incorporate large errors. Rather than trusting the results from single polls, the recommended strategy look at combined polls or, even better, the combined PollyVote forecast that draws upon forecasts from different methods, each of which draws upon different data.
In order to make the results comparable to forecasts from benchmark methods, we translate them into two-party vote shares. The resulting figures are 53.7% for Clinton and 46.3% for Trump.
The poll compared with PollyVote's prediction
The most recent PollyVote expects Clinton to gain 55.9% of the two-party vote in Minnesota. Hence, the PollyVote is 2.2 points above her polling numbers. The PollyVote forecast is thus in line with the poll's error margin.