Results of a new poll carried out by Bloomberg were spread. The poll asked interviewees from Ohio for whom they will vote: Republican nominee Donald Trump or Democrat nominee Hillary Clinton.
Ohio is traditionally a swing state, where the Republican and Democratic candidates have often won similar voter support. Therefore, the election outcome here is considered important in determining which party will win the majority of electoral votes.
Bloomberg poll results
According to the results, 43.0% of respondents are going to give their vote to former New York Senator Hillary Clinton, whereas 48.0% are going to vote for real estate developer Donald Trump.
This poll was conducted from September 9 to September 12, among a random sample of 802 likely voters. Taking into account the poll's sampling error of +/-3.5 percentage points, the results reflect a statistical tie.
Putting the results in context
Single polls should be regarded with caution, as they may include substantial errors. At the very least, one should examine how a poll's results compare to benchmark forecasts.
For the following comparison, we translate Clinton's and Trump's raw poll numbers into shares of the two-party vote. This yields figures of 47.3% for Clinton and 52.8% for Trump.
Results in comparison to other polls
An average of recent polls in Ohio has Trump at 50.6% of the two-party vote. Relative to her numbers in the Bloomberg poll Trump's poll average is 2.2 percentage points lower. This difference is within the poll's margin of error, which means that the poll is not an outlier.
The poll in comparison with PollyVote's forecast
The latest PollyVote expects Trump to gain 48.7% of the two-party vote in Ohio. This means that Polly's combined forecast is 4.1 points below her polling numbers. Again, a look at the poll's sampling error reveals that this deviation is significant.