Results of a new poll administered by Suffolk University were circulated. The poll asked participants from Ohio for whom they will vote: Hillary Clinton or Donald Trump.
Ohio is traditionally a battleground state, where the Democratic and Republican candidates have often won similar levels of voter support. Hence, the election outcome in that state is regarded important in determining who will win the majority of electoral votes.
Suffolk University poll results
Of those who responded, 39.0% said that they intend to vote for former New York Senator Hillary Clinton, while 42.0% said that they would give their vote to real estate developer Donald Trump.
The poll was conducted from September 12 to September 14. A total of 500 likely voters responded. If one accounts for the poll's sampling error of +/-4.4 percentage points, the results reflect a statistical tie.
Putting the results in context
In general, however, don't have too much faith in the results of single polls, since they often incorporate large errors. Rather, one should examine how a poll's results compare to benchmark forecasts.
In order to make the results comparable to benchmark forecasts, one can translate them into shares of the two-party vote. The respective figures are 48.2% for Clinton and 51.9% for Trump. On July 20 Clinton received 50.0% in the Suffolk University poll and Trump received only 0.0%.
Comparison to other polls
Trump can currently count on 50.6% of the two-party vote according to an average of recent polls in Ohio. Relative to her numbers in the Suffolk University poll Trump's poll average is 1.3 percentage points lower. This margin is within the poll's sampling error, which means that the poll is not an outlier.
Comparison to the combined PollyVote
The latest PollyVote forecasts Trump to gain 48.7% of the two-party vote in Ohio. That is, Polly's combined forecast is 3.2 points below her polling numbers. The PollyVote forecast is thus within the poll's margin of error.