Results of a new poll administered by CBS News/YouGov were distributed. The poll asked respondents from Ohio for whom they will vote: Republican nominee Donald Trump or Democrat nominee Hillary Clinton.
Historically, Ohio has been a swing state, in which neither the Republican Party nor the Democratic Party has had overwhelming support to secure its electoral college votes. Hence, forecasts here are of particular importance.
CBS News/YouGov poll results
According to the results, 46.0% of respondents said that they are going to vote for former New York Senator Hillary Clinton, while 39.0% are going to vote for billionaire Donald Trump.
The poll was carried out from September 7 to September 9 with 994 likely voters. The margin of error is +/-3.9 percentage points. This means that the levels of voter support for Trump and Clinton differ significantly.
Putting the results in context
Individual polls often incorporate large biases, and should be interpreted with caution. At least, one should examine how a poll's results compare to benchmark forecasts.
In order to make the results comparable to benchmark forecasts, we convert them into shares of the two-party vote. The respective figures are 54.1% for Clinton and 45.9% for Trump. To compare: Only 46.5% was gained by Clinton in the CBS News/YouGov poll on August 19, for Trump this number was only 0.0%.
Results vs. other polls
Clinton currently achieves 49.4% of the major two-party vote in an average of recent polls in Ohio. This value is 4.7 percentage points lower than his respective numbers in the CBS News/YouGov poll. This difference is outside the poll's margin of error, which suggests that the poll is an outlier.
Results compared to the combined PollyVote prediction
The most recent PollyVote predicts Clinton to gain 51.3% of the two-party vote in Ohio. That is, Polly's prediction is 2.8 points below his polling numbers. The PollyVote forecast is thus in line with the poll's margin of error.