Suffolk University published the results of a new poll. In this poll, interviewees from Ohio were asked for whom they will vote: Republican nominee Donald Trump or Democrat nominee Hillary Clinton.
In Ohio, the popular vote is usually close. Therefore, the state is commonly referred to as a battleground state, which makes it particularly interesting from a forecasting perspective.
Suffolk University poll results
Of those who responded, 39.0% said that they would vote for former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, whereas 42.0% indicated that they would give their vote to real estate developer Donald Trump.
The poll was conducted from September 12 to September 14 among 500 likely voters. There is a sampling error of +/-4.4 percentage points. Considering this error margin, the race is currently a statistical tie.
Putting the results in context
Individual polls should be regarded with caution, as they may contain large errors. Rather than trusting the results from single polls, the best practice scientific advice is to look at combined polls or, even better, the combined PollyVote forecast that relies on different methods and data.
For the following analysis, we convert Clinton's and Trump's raw poll numbers into shares of the two-party vote. This procedure yields figures of 48.2% for Clinton and 51.9% for Trump. To compare: 50.0% was obtained by Clinton in the Suffolk University poll on July 20, for Trump this result was only 0.0%.
Comparison to other polls
Trump currently achieves 50.6% of the major two-party vote according to an average of recent polls in Ohio. This value is 1.3 percentage points lower than his respective numbers in the Suffolk University poll. This difference is within the poll's error margin, which suggests that the poll is not an outlier.
Results compared to the combined PollyVote prediction
The most recent PollyVote anticipates Trump to gain 48.7% of the two-party vote in Ohio. This means that the combined PollyVote is 3.2 points below his polling numbers. The PollyVote forecast is therefore in line with the poll's margin of error.