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Massachusetts: New WBUR/MassINC poll has Trump behind by 29 points


Results of a new poll carried out by WBUR/MassINC were spread. The poll asked interviewees from Massachusetts for whom they will vote: Republican nominee Donald Trump or Democrat nominee Hillary Clinton.

WBUR/MassINC poll results




Of those who responded, 60.0% said that they will vote for former New York Senator Hillary Clinton, while 31.0% said that they would give their vote to businessman Donald Trump.

The poll was carried out from September 7 to September 10 among 506 likely voters. The margin of error is +/-4.4 points, which means that the levels of voter support for both parties' candidates differ significantly.

Putting the results in context

As a general rule, however, you should not have too much faith in the results of single polls, since they sometimes contain large errors. Rather, one should check how a poll's results compare to benchmark forecasts.

For the following analysis, we convert Trump's and Clinton's raw poll numbers into two-party vote shares. This procedure yields figures of 65.9% for Clinton and 34.1% for Trump.

Comparison to other polls

If we look at an average of Massachusetts polls, Clinton's current two-party vote share is at 63.2%. Compared to her numbers in the WBUR/MassINC poll Clinton's poll average is 2.7 percentage points lower. This margin is within the poll's error margin, which suggests that the poll is not an outlier.

Results compared to the combined PollyVote prediction

The latest PollyVote forecasts Clinton to gain 64.0% of the two-party vote in Massachusetts. Hence, the PollyVote is 1.9 points below her polling numbers. The PollyVote forecast is therefore within the poll's sampling error.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

Please let us know if you find any typos, missing words, or grammatical errors. Your feedback helps us to further improve the quality of the texts.

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