Results of a new poll carried out by WBUR/MassINC were spread. The poll asked interviewees from Massachusetts for whom they will vote: Republican nominee Donald Trump or Democrat nominee Hillary Clinton.
WBUR/MassINC poll results
Of those who responded, 60.0% said that they will vote for former New York Senator Hillary Clinton, while 31.0% said that they would give their vote to businessman Donald Trump.
The poll was carried out from September 7 to September 10 among 506 likely voters. The margin of error is +/-4.4 points, which means that the levels of voter support for both parties' candidates differ significantly.
Putting the results in context
As a general rule, however, you should not have too much faith in the results of single polls, since they sometimes contain large errors. Rather, one should check how a poll's results compare to benchmark forecasts.
For the following analysis, we convert Trump's and Clinton's raw poll numbers into two-party vote shares. This procedure yields figures of 65.9% for Clinton and 34.1% for Trump.
Comparison to other polls
If we look at an average of Massachusetts polls, Clinton's current two-party vote share is at 63.2%. Compared to her numbers in the WBUR/MassINC poll Clinton's poll average is 2.7 percentage points lower. This margin is within the poll's error margin, which suggests that the poll is not an outlier.
Results compared to the combined PollyVote prediction
The latest PollyVote forecasts Clinton to gain 64.0% of the two-party vote in Massachusetts. Hence, the PollyVote is 1.9 points below her polling numbers. The PollyVote forecast is therefore within the poll's sampling error.