Maryland: Huge lead for Clinton in recent OpinionWorks poll
By Results of a new poll administered by OpinionWorks were announced. The poll asked participants from Maryland for whom they will vote: Hillary Clinton or Donald Trump.
OpinionWorks poll results
Of those who answered the question, 54.0% said that they would vote for former New York Senator Hillary Clinton, while 25.0% said that they would give their vote to billionaire Donald Trump.
The poll was conducted from August 18 to August 30. A total of 754 likely voters responded. There is a sampling error of +/-3.6 percentage points. Considering this error margin, the gap between both candidates is statistically significant.
Putting the results in context
Single polls may contain large biases, and should be interpreted with caution. Instead of relying on results from single polls, the best practice is to look at combined polls or, even better, a combined forecast that relies on different methods and data.
To make the results comparable to forecasts from benchmark methods, you can convert them into shares of the two-party vote. This yields figures of 68.4% for Clinton and 31.7% for Trump.
Comparison to other polls
Clinton currently achieves 69.1% of the major two-party vote in an average of recent polls in Maryland. Relative to her numbers in the OpinionWorks poll Clinton's poll average is 0.7 percentage points better. This deviation is within the poll's margin of error, which suggests that the poll is not an outlier.
Comparison to the combined PollyVote
The most recent PollyVote anticipates Clinton to gain 64.4% of the two-party vote in Maryland. That is, Polly's forecast is 4.0 points below her polling numbers. The PollyVote forecast is thus outside the poll's sampling error.
