Quinnipiac published the results of a new poll. In this poll, respondents from Ohio were asked for whom they will vote: Republican nominee Donald Trump or Democrat nominee Hillary Clinton.
Historically, Ohio has been a battleground state, in which neither the Democrats nor the Republicans have had overwhelming support to clinch its electoral college votes. Hence, forecasts in this state are of particular value.
Quinnipiac poll results
Of those who responded, 45.0% said that they are going to vote for former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, while 46.0% declared that they would give their vote to billionaire Donald Trump.
This poll was conducted from August 29 to September 7, among a random sample of 775 likely voters. There is a sampling error of +/-3.5 percentage points. Considering this error margin, the race is currently a statistical tie.
Putting the results in context
Individual polls should be interpreted with caution, as they often incorporate substantial biases. Instead of relying on results from single polls, research in forecasting recommends to use combined polls or, even better, a combined forecast that relies on different methods and data.
For the following comparison, we convert the candidates' raw poll numbers into shares of the two-party vote. This procedure yields values of 49.5% for Clinton and 50.6% for Trump. To compare: Only 47.9% was gained by Clinton in the Quinnipiac poll on August 7, for Trump this result was only 0.0%.
Comparison to other polls
An average of recent polls in Ohio has Trump at 50.6% of the two-party vote. Compared to his numbers in the Quinnipiac poll Trump's poll average is 0 percentage points better. This difference is within the poll's margin of error, which suggests that the poll is not an outlier.
Comparison to the combined PollyVote
The current PollyVote expects Trump to gain 48.7% of the two-party vote in Ohio. This means that the PollyVote is 1.9 points below his polling numbers. The PollyVote forecast is therefore in line with the poll's sampling error.