Clout Research (R) published the results of a new poll. In this poll, interviewees from Oregon were asked for whom they will vote: Donald Trump or Hillary Clinton.
Clout Research (R) poll results
The results show that 42.0% of participants indicated that they would give their vote to former First Lady Hillary Clinton, while 44.0% intend to vote for billionaire Donald Trump.
The poll was carried out between May 10 and May 13. The sample size was 657 likely voters. Given the poll's error margin of +/-3.8 percentage points, the results reflect a statistical tie.
Putting the results in context
Individual polls may incorporate large biases, and should be interpreted with caution. Rather than trusting the results from single polls, research in forecasting recommends to use combined polls or, even better, the combined PollyVote forecast that draws upon forecasts from different methods, each of which draws upon different data.
For the following comparison, we convert Trump's and Clinton's raw poll numbers into two-party vote shares. The corresponding figures are 48.8% for Clinton and 51.2% for Trump. In the latest Clout Research (R) poll on July 13 Clinton obtained 51.8%, while Trump obtained only 48.2%.
The poll in comparison with PollyVote's prediction
The most recent PollyVote expects Trump to gain 41.3% of the two-party vote in Oregon. That is, the combined PollyVote is 9.9 points below her polling numbers. The PollyVote forecast is therefore outside the poll's error margin.