The Jerome model published an updated prediction of the election outcome. According to the model, Clinton will achieve 86.4% of the two-party vote share, whereas Trump will end up with 13.6%.
Putting the results in context
As any other method, models are subject to bias. As a result, one should not have too much faith in the results of a single econometric model. Instead of trusting the results from single models, forecasting research recommends to look at combined models or, even better, the combined PollyVote forecast that uses different methods and data.
Comparison to the combined PollyVote
The latest PollyVote anticipates Clinton to gain 91.0% of the two-party vote. The results of the Jerome model for Clinton are thus 4.6 percentage points below the combined PollyVote.