The Issues and Leaders model enters the index models component of the PollyVote forecast. It currently forecasts a major vote share of 51.3% for Clinton, and 48.7% for Trump.
Putting the results in context
Individual index models can contain substantial biases, and should be interpreted with caution. At least, one should examine how a index model's results compare to benchmark forecasts.
Results vs. other index models
Clinton currently achieves 53.9% of the two-party vote in an average of recent index models. In comparison to numbers in the Issues and Leaders index model Clinton's index model average is 2.6 percentage points better.
Comparison to the combined PollyVote
The most recent PollyVote predicts Clinton to gain 52.9% of the two-party vote. The results of the Issues and Leaders model for Clinton are thus 1.6 percentage points below the combined PollyVote.