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DeSart model in Ohio: Trump is in the lead


The DeSart model is part of the econometric models component of the PollyVote. According to the model, Clinton will garner 49.1% of the two-party vote share in Ohio, whereas Trump will win 50.9%. In comparison, on August 16 Trump was predicted to collect 0.0% of the vote.

Ohio is traditionally a swing state, where the GOP and the Democrats have historically won similar levels of support among voters. This is the reason why the election outcome here is regarded critical in determining who will win the majority of electoral votes.

Putting the results in context

As any other method, models are subject to bias. Hence, you should not be overly confident the results of an individual econometric model. At least, one should examine how a model's results compare to benchmark forecasts.

The DeSart model compared with PollyVote's forecast

The current PollyVote predicts Trump to gain 48.7% of the two-party vote in Ohio. The results of the DeSart model for Trump are thus 2.2 percentage points above the combined PollyVote in Ohio.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

Please let us know if you find any typos, missing words, or grammatical errors. Your feedback helps us to further improve the quality of the texts.

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