Emerson released the results of a new poll, in which respondents from Connecticut were asked for whom they will vote: Donald Trump or Hillary Clinton.
Emerson poll results
According to the results, 48.0% of respondents intend to cast a ballot for former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, while 40.0% are going to vote for billionaire Donald Trump.
The poll was conducted from April 10 to April 11 among 1043 likely voters. The margin of error is +/-3.0 points, which means that the levels of voter support for Clinton and Trump differ significantly.
Putting the results in context
Individual polls should be interpreted with caution, as they can incorporate substantial errors. At the very least, one should examine how a poll's results compare to benchmark forecasts.
In order to make the results comparable to forecasts from benchmark methods, one can translate them into shares of the two-party vote. This procedure results in values of 54.6% for Clinton and 45.5% for Trump.
Results compared to the combined PollyVote forecast
The current PollyVote predicts Clinton to gain 57.1% of the two-party vote in Connecticut. That is, the PollyVote is 2.5 points above her polling numbers. The PollyVote forecast is thus in line with the poll's sampling error.