CNN-ORC released the results of a new poll, in which respondents from Ohio were asked for whom they will vote: Republican Donald Trump or Democrat Hillary Clinton.
Ohio is traditionally a swing state, where the two major political parties have often gained similar levels of support among voters. Therefore, the election outcome here is viewed as critical in determining who will win the majority of electoral votes.
CNN-ORC poll results
According to the results, 46.0% of interviewees intend to vote for former First Lady Hillary Clinton, whereas 50.0% intend to vote for billionaire Donald Trump.
The poll was carried out between September 7 and September 12. The sample size was 769 likely voters. If one accounts for the poll's sampling error of +/-3.5 percentage points, the results reflect a statistical tie.
Putting the results in context
As a general rule, however, you should not have too much faith in the results of single polls, because they can contain large errors. At the very least, one should examine how a poll's results compare to benchmark forecasts.
To make the results comparable to forecasts from benchmark methods, one can convert them into two-party vote shares. The corresponding figures are 47.9% for Clinton and 52.1% for Trump. To compare: 53.8% was obtained by Clinton in the CNN-ORC poll on March 6, for Trump this result was only 46.2%.
Results compared to other polls
Trump currently achieves 50.6% of the major two-party vote according to an average of recent polls in Ohio. Compared to her numbers in the CNN-ORC poll Trump's poll average is 1.5 percentage points lower. This margin is within the poll's margin of error, which means that the poll is not an outlier.
Results compared to the combined PollyVote forecast
The most recent PollyVote expects Trump to gain 48.7% of the two-party vote in Ohio. That is, Polly's combined forecast is 3.4 points below her polling numbers. Again, a look at the poll's margin of error reveals that this difference is insignificant.