CBS News/YouGov poll in Ohio: Trump behind by 7 points
CBS News/YouGov released the results of a new poll, in which respondents from Ohio were asked for whom they will vote: Democrat candidate Hillary Clinton or Republican candidate Donald Trump.
Ohio is traditionally a battleground state, where the Democrats and the GOP have historically won similar levels of support among voters. Hence, the election outcome in that state is considered critical in determining the overall result of the presidential election.
CBS News/YouGov poll results
The results show that 46.0% of participants will give their vote to former First Lady Hillary Clinton, whereas 39.0% would vote for real estate developer Donald Trump.
This poll was conducted from September 7 to September 9, among a random sample of 994 likely voters. Given the poll's margin of error of +/-3.9 percentage points, the difference between both candidates is statistically significant.
Putting the results in context
Single polls should be regarded with caution, since they may incorporate substantial errors. Rather, one should examine how a poll's results compare to benchmark forecasts.
In order to make the results comparable to forecasts from other methods, we convert them into two-party vote shares. The resulting figures are 54.1% for Clinton and 45.9% for Trump. In the most recent CBS News/YouGov poll on August 19 Clinton received only 46.5%, while Trump received only 0.0%.
Results in comparison to other polls
An average of recent polls in Ohio has Clinton at 49.4% of the two-party vote. This value is 4.7 percentage points lower than her corresponding numbers in the CBS News/YouGov poll. This difference is outside the poll's sampling error, which suggests that the poll is an outlier.
Comparison to the combined PollyVote
The latest PollyVote expects Clinton to gain 51.3% of the two-party vote in Ohio. That is, the PollyVote forecast is 2.8 points below her polling numbers. The PollyVote forecast is therefore within the poll's sampling error.