KABC/SurveyUSA released the results of a new poll, in which respondents from California were asked for whom they will vote: Republican Donald Trump or Democrat Hillary Clinton.
KABC/SurveyUSA poll results
Of those who responded, 57.0% said that they intend to vote for former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, while 32.0% declared that they would give their vote to businessman Donald Trump.
This poll was conducted from September 8 to September 11, among a random sample of 678 likely voters. There is a sampling error of +/-3.8 percentage points. Considering this error margin, the gap between both candidates is statistically significant.
Putting the results in context
Individual polls often incorporate substantial errors, which is why they should be treated with caution. Rather than trusting the results from single polls, the best practice is to consult combined polls or, even better, the combined PollyVote forecast that uses different methods and data.
To make the results comparable to forecasts from other methods, we translate them into two-party vote shares. This yields figures of 64.0% for Clinton and 36.0% for Trump.
Comparison to other polls
An average of recent polls in California has Clinton at 64.1% of the two-party vote. In comparison to her numbers in the KABC/SurveyUSA poll Clinton's poll average is 0.1 percentage points better. This deviation is within the poll's sampling error, which means that the poll is not an outlier.
The poll compared with PollyVote's prediction
The most recent PollyVote anticipates Clinton to gain 61.4% of the two-party vote in California. Hence, Polly's prediction is 2.6 points below her polling numbers. Again, a look at the poll's error margin indicates that this deviation is negligible.