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Broad consensus among component methods about election outcome


In today's update, Polly the parrot predicts that Clinton will end up with 52.9% of the national two-party vote. This leaves 47.1% for Trump. There is broad consensus among the six available component methods: Five predict a win for Clinton while one predicts that Trump will win.

According to the econometric models Trump is right now ahead by 50.4%.

Coming in closest to PollyVote's prediction are expert surveys with a vote share of 53.5% for Clinton. The prediction markets present the largest deviation from PollyVote's forecast and predict Clinton to have 56.6% of the vote.

The econometric models forecast of 49.7% for the candidate of the Democratic party is notably low in comparison to previous elections. In fact, this is the method's lowest forecast at that time in the campaign since 2004, when John Kerry ran against George W. Bush. At that time, econometric models predicted a vote share of 46.0% for John Kerry.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

Please let us know if you find any typos, missing words, or grammatical errors. Your feedback helps us to further improve the quality of the texts.

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