The Big-issue model is part of the index models component of the combined PollyVote forecast. According to the model, Clinton will achieve 51.7% of the two-party vote share, whereas Trump will win 48.3%.
Putting the results in context
Single index models may include large errors, and should be treated with caution. At the very least, one should check how a index model's results compare to benchmark forecasts.
Comparison to other index models
Looking at an average of index models, Clinton's current two-party vote share is at 54.1%. This value is 2.4 percentage points higher than corresponding numbers in the Big-issue index model.
Results compared to the combined PollyVote prediction
The most recent PollyVote expects Clinton to gain 52.9% of the two-party vote. The results of the Big-issue model for Clinton are thus 1.2 percentage points below the combined PollyVote.