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Big-issue model shows Clinton in the lead


The Big-issue model is part of the index models component of the combined PollyVote forecast. According to the model, Clinton will achieve 51.7% of the two-party vote share, whereas Trump will win 48.3%.

Putting the results in context

Single index models may include large errors, and should be treated with caution. At the very least, one should check how a index model's results compare to benchmark forecasts.

Comparison to other index models

Looking at an average of index models, Clinton's current two-party vote share is at 54.1%. This value is 2.4 percentage points higher than corresponding numbers in the Big-issue index model.

Results compared to the combined PollyVote prediction

The most recent PollyVote expects Clinton to gain 52.9% of the two-party vote. The results of the Big-issue model for Clinton are thus 1.2 percentage points below the combined PollyVote.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

Please let us know if you find any typos, missing words, or grammatical errors. Your feedback helps us to further improve the quality of the texts.

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