Washington: 19 points lead for Clinton in new Elway poll
Elway published the results of a new poll. In this poll, respondents from Washington were asked for whom they will vote: Hillary Clinton or Donald Trump.
Elway poll results
Of those who answered the question, 43.0% said that they would vote for former First Lady Hillary Clinton, while 24.0% said that they would give their vote to real estate developer Donald Trump.
The poll was in the field between August 9 and August 13. The sample size was 500 registered voters. The error margin is +/-4.5 percentage points, which means that the poll results for the Democratic and the Republican candidate differ significantly.
Putting the results in context
As a general rule, however, one should not have too much faith in the results of single polls, as they may incorporate large errors. Instead of trusting the results from single polls, the best practice scientific advice is to rely on combined polls or, even better, a combined forecast that draws upon different methods and data.
For the following comparison, we translate Trump's and Clinton's raw poll numbers into two-party vote shares. This procedure results in figures of 64.2% for Clinton and 35.8% for Trump.
Comparison to the combined PollyVote
The most recent PollyVote forecasts Clinton to gain 57.5% of the two-party vote in Washington. That is, the PollyVote is 6.7 points below her polling numbers. Again, a look at the poll's error margin suggests that this deviation is significant.