Emerson released the results of a new poll, in which respondents from Vermont were asked for whom they will vote: Republican nominee Donald Trump or Democrat nominee Hillary Clinton.
Emerson poll results
Of those who responded, 47.0% said that they are going to vote for former New York Senator Hillary Clinton, while 26.0% said that they would give their vote to billionaire Donald Trump.
The poll was carried out between September 2 and September 5. The sample size was 600 likely voters. There is a sampling error of +/-3.9 percentage points. Considering this error margin, the gap between both candidates is statistically significant.
Putting the results in context
As a general rule, however, you should not have too much faith in the results of single polls, as they can incorporate large errors. Rather than trusting the results from single polls, the best practice is to consult combined polls or, even better, a combined forecast that draws upon different methods and data.
For the following analysis, we translate Trump's and Clinton's raw poll numbers into two-party vote shares. This yields figures of 64.4% for Clinton and 35.6% for Trump.
The poll in comparison with PollyVote's prediction
The latest PollyVote anticipates Clinton to gain 64.5% of the two-party vote in Vermont. This means that Polly's forecast is 0.1 points above her polling numbers. The PollyVote forecast is therefore in line with the poll's error margin.