UtahPolicy/Dan Jones released the results of a new poll, in which respondents from Utah were asked for whom they will vote: Hillary Clinton or Donald Trump.
UtahPolicy/Dan Jones poll results
Of those who answered the question, 27.0% said that they would vote for former First Lady Hillary Clinton, while 36.0% indicated that they would give their vote to billionaire Donald Trump.
The poll was in the field between June 8 and June 17. The sample size was 614 registered voters. The margin of error is +/-4.0 percentage points, which means that the poll results for Trump and Clinton differ significantly.
Putting the results in context
Single polls can incorporate substantial errors, which is why they should be treated with caution. Instead of relying on results from single polls, the evidence-based approach is to consult combined polls or, even better, the combined PollyVote forecast that incorporates different methods and data.
For the following comparison, we convert Trump's and Clinton's raw poll numbers into two-party vote shares. This yields figures of 42.9% for Clinton and 57.1% for Trump.
Comparison to the combined PollyVote
The current PollyVote anticipates Trump to gain 60.9% of the two-party vote in Utah. This means that Polly's forecast is 3.8 points above his polling numbers. The PollyVote forecast is therefore in line with the poll's sampling error.