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Trial-heat model shows Clinton in the lead


The Trial-heat model is captured in the econometric models component of the combined PollyVote forecast. It currently forecasts a two-party vote share of 50.7% for Clinton, and 49.3% for Trump. In comparison, on September 13, Clinton was predicted to win 52.1% of the vote.

Putting the results in context

Individual models can incorporate large biases, which is why they should be interpreted with caution. Rather, one should check how a model's results compare to benchmark forecasts.

Results vs. other econometric models

An average of recent econometric models has Clinton at 49.7% of the two-party vote. In comparison to numbers in the Trial-heat model Clinton's econometric model average is 1.1 percentage points worse.

Comparison to the combined PollyVote

The latest PollyVote forecasts Clinton to gain 52.9% of the two-party vote. The results of the Trial-heat model for Clinton are thus 2.2 percentage points below the combined PollyVote.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

Please let us know if you find any typos, missing words, or grammatical errors. Your feedback helps us to further improve the quality of the texts.

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