The Trial-heat model is captured in the econometric models component of the combined PollyVote forecast. It currently forecasts a two-party vote share of 50.7% for Clinton, and 49.3% for Trump. In comparison, on September 13, Clinton was predicted to win 52.1% of the vote.
Putting the results in context
Individual models can incorporate large biases, which is why they should be interpreted with caution. Rather, one should check how a model's results compare to benchmark forecasts.
Results vs. other econometric models
An average of recent econometric models has Clinton at 49.7% of the two-party vote. In comparison to numbers in the Trial-heat model Clinton's econometric model average is 1.1 percentage points worse.
Comparison to the combined PollyVote
The latest PollyVote forecasts Clinton to gain 52.9% of the two-party vote. The results of the Trial-heat model for Clinton are thus 2.2 percentage points below the combined PollyVote.