CBS News/YouGov released the results of a new poll, in which respondents from Ohio were asked for whom they will vote: Donald Trump or Hillary Clinton.
In Ohio, the election outcome is often close. This is why the state is commonly regarded as a battleground state, which makes it particularly interesting from a forecasting perspective.
CBS News/YouGov poll results
The results show that 46.0% of participants will give their vote to former New York Senator Hillary Clinton, whereas 39.0% will give their vote to billionaire Donald Trump.
The poll was conducted from September 7 to September 9. A total of 994 likely voters responded. The error margin is +/-3.9 points. This means that the poll results for Trump and Clinton differ significantly.
Putting the results in context
As a general rule, however, you should not have too much faith in the results of single polls, as they sometimes incorporate large errors. Instead of trusting the results from single polls, we recommend to use combined polls or, even better, a combined forecast that uses forecasts from different methods, each of which draws upon different data.
In order to make the results comparable to forecasts from other methods, you can convert them into two-party vote shares. This procedure results in values of 54.1% for Clinton and 45.9% for Trump. For comparison: Only 46.5% was obtained by Clinton in the CBS News/YouGov poll on August 19, for Trump this number was only 0.0%.
Results compared to other polls
Clinton currently achieves 49.4% of the major two-party vote in an average of recent polls in Ohio. This value is 4.7 percentage points lower than his respective numbers in the CBS News/YouGov poll. This difference is outside the poll's margin of error, which suggests that the poll is an outlier.
Results compared to the combined PollyVote prediction
The latest PollyVote forecasts Clinton to gain 51.3% of the two-party vote in Ohio. That is, Polly's prediction is 2.8 points below his polling numbers. Again, a look at the poll's error margin indicates that this deviation is negligible.