Emerson released the results of a new poll, in which respondents from Ohio were asked for whom they will vote: Donald Trump or Hillary Clinton.
Historically, Ohio has been a swing state, in which neither of the two major parties has had overwhelming support to clinch that state's electoral college votes. Therefore, forecasts here are of particular interest.
Emerson poll results
The results show that the two candidates have the exact same level of support, each with 43.0% of the vote.
The poll was conducted from August 25 to August 27 with 800 likely voters. The sampling error is +/-3.4 points. This means that the poll results for the Republican and the Democratic candidate do not differ significantly.
Putting the results in context
Individual polls often include large biases, which is why they should be treated with caution. Rather than trusting the results from single polls, the best practice scientific advice is to consult combined polls or, even better, a combined forecast that uses different methods and data.
For the following comparison, we translate Clinton's and Trump's raw poll numbers into shares of the two-party vote. The results of the actual poll mean 50.0 % for Clinton and 50.0 % for Trump in the two-party vote share.
Results vs. other polls
An average of recent polls in Ohio has Clinton at 49.4% of the two-party vote. In comparison to the average forecast of other polls Clinton performed 0.6 percentage points better in the poll. This margin is outside the poll's margin of error, which suggests that the poll is an outlier.
Results compared to the combined PollyVote forecast
The most recent PollyVote predicts Clinton to gain 51.3% and Trump 48.7% of the two-party vote in Ohio. Clinton has 1.3 percentage points less when the results of the poll are compared to the combined PollyVote forecast for Ohio. Again, a look at the poll's sampling error indicates that this difference is significant.