Emerson published the results of a new poll. In this poll, respondents from Ohio were asked for whom they will vote: Democrat candidate Hillary Clinton or Republican candidate Donald Trump.
Ohio is traditionally a battleground state, where Republicans and Democrats have historically gained similar voter support. This is the reason why the election outcome in that state is regarded crucial in determining which party will win the majority of electoral votes.
Emerson poll results
According to the results, real estate developer Donald Trump and former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton are on equal standing, each with 43.0% of the vote.
The poll was carried out between August 25 and August 27. The sample size was 800 likely voters. The margin of error is +/-3.4 percentage points, which means that the poll results for the Democratic and the Republican candidate do not differ significantly.
Putting the results in context
Single polls should be regarded with caution, because they may include substantial errors. Instead of relying on results from single polls, we recommend to look at combined polls or, even better, a combined forecast that draws upon different methods and data.
For the following comparison, we convert the candidates' raw poll numbers into shares of the two-party vote. The results of the actual poll mean 50.0 % for Clinton and 50.0 % for Trump in the two-party vote share.
Results vs. other polls
Looking at an average of Ohio polls, Clinton's two-party vote share is currently at 49.4%. In comparison to the average forecast of other polls Clinton performed 0.6 percentage points better in the poll. This difference is outside the poll's sampling error, which suggests that the poll is an outlier.
Comparison to the combined PollyVote
The most recent PollyVote predicts Clinton to gain 51.4% and Trump 48.6% of the two-party vote in Ohio. Clinton has 1.4 percentage points less when the results of the poll are compared to the combined PollyVote forecast for Ohio. Again, a look at the poll's sampling error reveals that this deviation is significant.