KABC/SurveyUSA published the results of a new poll. In this poll, interviewees from California were asked for whom they will vote: Republican nominee Donald Trump or Democrat nominee Hillary Clinton.
KABC/SurveyUSA poll results
Of those who replied, 57.0% said that they will vote for former New York Senator Hillary Clinton, while 32.0% declared that they would give their vote to real estate developer Donald Trump.
The poll was carried out from September 8 to September 11 among 678 likely voters. The sampling error is +/-3.8 points, which means that the levels of voter support for both parties' candidates differ significantly.
Putting the results in context
Individual polls may include substantial biases, and should be interpreted with caution. At the very least, one should examine how a poll's results compare to benchmark forecasts.
For the following analysis, we convert Clinton's and Trump's raw poll numbers into shares of the two-party vote. This yields figures of 64.0% for Clinton and 36.0% for Trump.
Results vs. other polls
Looking at an average of California polls, Clinton's current two-party vote share is at 64.1%. This value is 0.1 percentage points higher than her corresponding numbers in the KABC/SurveyUSA poll. This difference is within the poll's sampling error, which suggests that the poll is not an outlier.
The poll compared with PollyVote's prediction
The latest PollyVote anticipates Clinton to gain 61.4% of the two-party vote in California. Hence, Polly's prediction is 2.6 points below her polling numbers. The PollyVote forecast is therefore within the poll's sampling error.