Clout Research (R) released the results of a new poll, in which respondents from Oregon were asked for whom they will vote: Republican Donald Trump or Democrat Hillary Clinton.
Clout Research (R) poll results
Of those who replied, 43.0% said that they intend to vote for former New York Senator Hillary Clinton, while 40.0% declared that they would give their vote to billionaire Donald Trump.
This poll was conducted from July 9 to July 13, among a random sample of 701 likely voters. If one accounts for the poll's margin of error of +/-3.7 percentage points, the results reflect a statistical tie.
Putting the results in context
As any other method, polls are subject to bias. Hence, don't have too much faith in the results of an individual poll. Instead of relying on results from single polls, forecasting research recommends to rely on combined polls or, even better, a combined forecast that draws upon different methods and data.
For the following analysis, we translate Clinton's and Trump's raw poll numbers into shares of the two-party vote. This procedure yields figures of 51.8% for Clinton and 48.2% for Trump. In the most recent Clout Research (R) poll on May 13 Clinton received only 48.8%, while Trump received 51.2%.
Comparison to the combined PollyVote
The current PollyVote anticipates Clinton to gain 58.8% of the two-party vote in Oregon. That is, the PollyVote is 7.0 points above her polling numbers. Again, a look at the poll's sampling error shows that this difference is significant.