Results of a new national poll carried out by CBS/Times were distributed. The poll asked participants for whom they will vote: Democrat candidate Hillary Clinton or Republican candidate Donald Trump.
CBS/Times poll results
According to the results, 46.0% of interviewees plan to cast a ballot for former First Lady Hillary Clinton, while 44.0% are going to vote for real estate developer Donald Trump.
The phone poll was conducted from September 9 to September 13 with 1433 likely voters. Considering the poll's error margin of +/-2.6 percentage points, the results reflect a statistical tie.
Putting the results in context
As a general rule, however, don't have too much faith in the results of single polls, since they often incorporate large errors. Instead of trusting the results from single polls, the best practice scientific advice is to use combined polls or, even better, the combined PollyVote forecast that uses different methods and data.
For the following analysis, we translate the candidates' raw poll numbers into shares of the two-party vote. This yields figures of 51.1% for Clinton and 48.9% for Trump. For comparison: Only 50.0% was obtained by Clinton in the CBS/Times poll on July 12, for Trump this number was 50.0%.
Comparison to other polls
Clinton is currently at 51.2% of the major two-party vote in an average of recent polls. This value is 0.1 percentage points higher than respective numbers in the CBS/Times poll. This difference is within the poll's margin of error, which suggests that the poll is not an outlier.
Results compared to the combined PollyVote prediction
The most recent PollyVote anticipates Clinton to gain 52.9% of the two-party vote. This means that Polly's prediction is 1.8 points above polling numbers. The PollyVote forecast is therefore in line with the poll's sampling error.