Star Tribune/Mason-Dixon published the results of a new poll. In this poll, interviewees from Minnesota were asked for whom they will vote: Donald Trump or Hillary Clinton.
Star Tribune/Mason-Dixon poll results
The results show that 48.0% of participants said that they would give their vote to former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, whereas 35.0% would vote for businessman Donald Trump.
This poll was conducted from April 25 to April 27, among a random sample of 800 registered voters. Taking into account the poll's error margin of +/-3.5 percentage points, the spread in voter support is statistically significant.
Putting the results in context
Single polls should be treated with caution, because they can incorporate large biases. At the very least, one should check how a poll's results compare to benchmark forecasts.
For the following analysis, we convert Clinton's and Trump's raw poll numbers into two-party vote shares. This yields figures of 57.8% for Clinton and 42.2% for Trump. In the latest Star Tribune/Mason-Dixon poll on January 20 Clinton received only 53.1%, while Trump received 46.9%.
Comparison to the combined PollyVote
The current PollyVote foresees Clinton to gain 55.9% of the two-party vote in Minnesota. Hence, the combined PollyVote is 1.9 points below her polling numbers. The PollyVote forecast is therefore in line with the poll's margin of error.