Massachusetts: Huge lead for Clinton in WBUR/MassINC poll
WBUR/MassINC released the results of a new poll, in which respondents from Massachusetts were asked for whom they will vote: Democrat Hillary Clinton or Republican Donald Trump.
WBUR/MassINC poll results
The results show that 60.0% of participants plan to vote for former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, whereas 31.0% are going to vote for billionaire Donald Trump.
The poll was conducted from September 7 to September 10. A total of 506 likely voters responded. Taking into account the poll's margin of error of +/-4.4 percentage points, the spread between both candidates is statistically significant.
Putting the results in context
Single polls may contain large biases, and should be interpreted with caution. At the very least, one should check how a poll's results compare to benchmark forecasts.
For the following analysis, we convert Trump's and Clinton's raw poll numbers into two-party vote shares. The corresponding figures are 65.9% for Clinton and 34.1% for Trump.
Results in comparison to other polls
An average of recent polls in Massachusetts sees Clinton at 63.2% of the two-party vote. Compared to her numbers in the WBUR/MassINC poll Clinton's poll average is 2.7 percentage points lower. This deviation is within the poll's margin of error, which means that the poll is not an outlier.
Comparison to the combined PollyVote
The current PollyVote anticipates Clinton to gain 64.0% of the two-party vote in Massachusetts. That is, the PollyVote forecast is 1.9 points below her polling numbers. Again, a look at the poll's error margin shows that this deviation is insignificant.