OpinionWorks released the results of a new poll, in which respondents from Maryland were asked for whom they will vote: Republican Donald Trump or Democrat Hillary Clinton.
OpinionWorks poll results
According to the results, 54.0% of respondents are going to vote for former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, whereas 25.0% are going to vote for billionaire Donald Trump.
The poll was conducted from August 18 to August 30. A total of 754 likely voters responded. Given the poll's sampling error of +/-3.6 percentage points, the spread in voter support is statistically significant.
Putting the results in context
Single polls can incorporate substantial errors, and should be treated with caution. At the very least, one should check how a poll's results compare to benchmark forecasts.
For the following analysis, we convert Trump's and Clinton's raw poll numbers into two-party vote shares. The corresponding figures are 68.4% for Clinton and 31.7% for Trump.
Results compared to other polls
An average of recent polls in Maryland sees Clinton at 69.1% of the two-party vote. Compared to her numbers in the OpinionWorks poll Clinton's poll average is 0.7 percentage points higher. This difference is within the poll's error margin, which means that the poll is not an outlier.
Comparison to the combined PollyVote
The most recent PollyVote anticipates Clinton to gain 64.4% of the two-party vote in Maryland. That is, the PollyVote forecast is 4.0 points below her polling numbers. Again, a look at the poll's sampling error indicates that this deviation is significant.