PPP (D) released the results of a new poll, in which respondents from Maryland were asked for whom they will vote: Democrat Hillary Clinton or Republican Donald Trump.
PPP (D) poll results
According to the results, 61.0% of interviewees will cast a ballot for former First Lady Hillary Clinton, while 28.0% plan to vote for real estate developer Donald Trump.
The poll was conducted between April 15 and April 17. The sample size was 879 registered voters. There is a sampling error of +/-3.3 percentage points. Considering this error margin, the gap between both candidates is statistically significant.
Putting the results in context
As any other method, polls are subject to bias. Therefore, as a general rule, a good strategy is to not focus too much on the results of an individual poll. Rather than trusting the results from single polls, the recommended strategy use combined polls or, even better, the combined PollyVote forecast that relies on forecasts from different methods, each of which draws upon different data.
To make the results comparable to benchmark forecasts, we translate them into two-party vote shares. This procedure results in values of 68.5% for Clinton and 31.5% for Trump.
Comparison to other polls
Clinton currently achieves 69.0% of the two-party vote according to an average of recent polls in Maryland. In comparison to her numbers in the PPP (D) poll Clinton's poll average is 0.5 percentage points higher. This deviation is within the poll's margin of error, which suggests that the poll is not an outlier.
Results compared to the combined PollyVote prediction
The current PollyVote predicts Clinton to gain 64.4% of the two-party vote in Maryland. Hence, Polly's forecast is 4.1 points below her polling numbers. The PollyVote forecast is therefore outside the poll's margin of error.