Suffolk University released the results of a new poll, in which respondents from Ohio were asked for whom they will vote: Democrat Hillary Clinton or Republican Donald Trump.
Historically, Ohio has been a swing state, in which no single party has had overwhelming support to secure its electoral college votes. This is why forecasts here are of particular value.
Suffolk University poll results
Of those who responded, 39.0% said that they are going to vote for former New York Senator Hillary Clinton, whereas 42.0% declared that they would give their vote to billionaire Donald Trump.
The poll was carried out between September 12 and September 14. The sample size was 500 likely voters. Given the poll's sampling error of +/-4.4 percentage points, the results reflect a statistical tie.
Putting the results in context
Single polls can include substantial biases, and should be interpreted with caution. Rather, one should check how a poll's results compare to benchmark forecasts.
In order to make the results comparable to benchmark forecasts, we convert them into shares of the two-party vote. The respective figures are 48.2% for Clinton and 51.9% for Trump. For comparison: 50.0% was obtained by Clinton in the Suffolk University poll on July 20, for Trump this number was only 0.0%.
Results in comparison to other polls
Looking at an average of Ohio polls, Trump's current two-party vote share is at 50.6%. Relative to his numbers in the Suffolk University poll Trump's poll average is 1.3 percentage points lower. This deviation is within the poll's margin of error, which suggests that the poll is not an outlier.
The poll in comparison with PollyVote's prediction
The most recent PollyVote predicts Trump to gain 48.7% of the two-party vote in Ohio. That is, Polly's prediction is 3.2 points below his polling numbers. The PollyVote forecast is thus within the poll's error margin.