CBS News/YouGov released the results of a new poll, in which respondents from Ohio were asked for whom they will vote: Hillary Clinton or Donald Trump.
Ohio is traditionally a purple state, where the Democratic and Republican candidates have historically achieved similar voter support. Hence, the election outcome in that state is regarded important in determining the overall result of the presidential election.
CBS News/YouGov poll results
The results show that 46.0% of respondents said that they would cast a ballot for former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, whereas 39.0% said that they would cast a ballot for real estate developer Donald Trump.
The poll was conducted from September 7 to September 9. A total of 994 likely voters responded. Taking into account the poll's error margin of +/-3.9 percentage points, the spread between both candidates is statistically significant.
Putting the results in context
Single polls should be regarded with caution, since they can contain large biases. At the very least, one should examine how a poll's results compare to benchmark forecasts.
For the following analysis, we translate Clinton's and Trump's raw poll numbers into shares of the two-party vote. This yields figures of 54.1% for Clinton and 45.9% for Trump. On August 19 Clinton received only 46.5% in the CBS News/YouGov poll and Trump received only 0.0%.
Results vs. other polls
Clinton currently runs at 49.4% of the major two-party vote in an average of recent polls in Ohio. In comparison to her numbers in the CBS News/YouGov poll Clinton's poll average is 4.7 percentage points worse. This deviation is outside the poll's error margin, which means that the poll is an outlier.
The poll compared with PollyVote's forecast
The latest PollyVote foresees Clinton to gain 51.4% of the two-party vote in Ohio. That is, the PollyVote forecast is 2.7 points below her polling numbers. Again, a look at the poll's margin of error reveals that this deviation is insignificant.