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Issues and Leaders model: Clinton is in the lead

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The Issues and Leaders model is captured in the index models component of the combined PollyVote. It currently predicts a two-party vote share of 51.3% for Clinton, and 48.7% for Trump.

Putting the results in context

Single index models can incorporate large biases, and should be interpreted with caution. Instead of relying on results from single index models, the evidence-based approach is to consult combined index models or, even better, the combined PollyVote forecast that includes different methods and data.

Results in comparison to other index models

An average of recent index models sees Clinton at 54.1% of the two-party vote. Relative to numbers in the Issues and Leaders index model Clinton's index model average is 2.8 percentage points higher.

Comparison to the combined PollyVote

The current PollyVote foresees Clinton to gain 52.9% of the two-party vote. PollyVote currently predicts Clinton to gain 1.6 percentage points more compared to the results of the Issues and Leaders model.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

Please let us know if you find any typos, missing words, or grammatical errors. Your feedback helps us to further improve the quality of the texts.

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