Issue-index model shows Clinton in the lead

The Issue-index model provided an updated prediction of the election result. It currently forecasts a major vote share of 56.2% for Clinton, and 43.8% for Trump. In comparison, on September 1, Clinton was predicted to end up with only 43.4% of the vote.

Putting the results in context

Individual index models may contain large errors, which is why they should be treated with caution. Rather, one should check how a index model's results compare to benchmark forecasts.

Comparison to other index models

If we look at an average of index models, Clinton's current two-party vote share is at 54.0%. This value is 2.2 percentage points lower than respective numbers in the Issue-index index model.

Results compared to the combined PollyVote forecast

The latest PollyVote anticipates Clinton to gain 52.9% of the two-party vote. The results of the Issue-index model for Clinton are thus 3.3 percentage points above the combined PollyVote.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

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