The Issue-index model provided an updated prediction of the election result. It currently forecasts a major vote share of 56.2% for Clinton, and 43.8% for Trump. In comparison, on September 1, Clinton was predicted to end up with only 43.4% of the vote.
Putting the results in context
Individual index models may contain large errors, which is why they should be treated with caution. Rather, one should check how a index model's results compare to benchmark forecasts.
Comparison to other index models
If we look at an average of index models, Clinton's current two-party vote share is at 54.0%. This value is 2.2 percentage points lower than respective numbers in the Issue-index index model.
Results compared to the combined PollyVote forecast
The latest PollyVote anticipates Clinton to gain 52.9% of the two-party vote. The results of the Issue-index model for Clinton are thus 3.3 percentage points above the combined PollyVote.