Emerson published the results of a new poll. In this poll, interviewees from Connecticut were asked for whom they will vote: Democrat candidate Hillary Clinton or Republican candidate Donald Trump.
Emerson poll results
According to the results, 50.0% of interviewees will give their vote to former First Lady Hillary Clinton, whereas 35.0% plan to vote for real estate developer Donald Trump.
The poll was in the field between September 2 and September 5. The sample size was 1000 likely voters. The error margin is +/-3.0 percentage points. This means that the levels of voter support for the two candidates differ significantly.
Putting the results in context
Individual polls should be treated with caution, since they can include substantial errors. Rather, one should check how a poll's results compare to benchmark forecasts.
For the following comparison, we translate Trump's and Clinton's raw poll numbers into shares of the two-party vote. The corresponding figures are 58.8% for Clinton and 41.2% for Trump.
The poll in comparison with PollyVote's prediction
The current PollyVote foresees Clinton to gain 57.1% of the two-party vote in Connecticut. That is, the PollyVote is 1.7 points below her polling numbers. Again, a look at the poll's error margin suggests that this difference is insignificant.