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Broad consensus among component methods about election outcome


PollyVote today forecasts a national two-party vote share of 52.9% for Clinton and 47.1% for Trump. There is broad consensus among the six available components: Five predict a win for Clinton while one predicts that Trump will win.

In contrast to the PollyVote forecast, Trump has a lead in the econometric models of 50.4%.

Expert surveys predict a vote share of 53.5% for Clinton, which is the closest to PollyVote's forecast. With a vote share of 56.2% the prediction markets deviate the most from the PollyVote forecast.

In comparison to previous elections, the Democrats' forecast of 51.0% in aggregated polls is notably low. The last time the forecast fell short of that value at that time in the campaign was the election in 2008, John McCain and Barack Obama ran for presidency. At that time, combined polls predicted a vote share of 50.0% for the Democratic candidate Barack Obama.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

Please let us know if you find any typos, missing words, or grammatical errors. Your feedback helps us to further improve the quality of the texts.

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