Results of a new poll carried out by Bloomberg were circulated. The poll asked respondents from Ohio for whom they will vote: Hillary Clinton or Donald Trump.
Historically, Ohio has been a purple state, in which neither of the two major parties has had overwhelming support to clinch that state's electoral college votes. This is the reason why forecasts in this state are of particular importance.
Bloomberg poll results
Of those who responded, 43.0% said that they are going to vote for former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, whereas 48.0% said that they would give their vote to billionaire Donald Trump.
The poll was conducted from September 9 to September 12 with 802 likely voters. If one takes into account the poll's sampling error of +/-3.5 percentage points, the results reflect a statistical tie.
Putting the results in context
In general, however, a good strategy is to not have too much faith in the results of single polls, since they may contain large errors. Instead of relying on results from single polls, the best practice is to rely on combined polls or, even better, a combined forecast that relies on forecasts from different methods, each of which draws upon different data.
For the following analysis, we convert Clinton's and Trump's raw poll numbers into shares of the two-party vote. This procedure yields values of 47.3% for Clinton and 52.8% for Trump.
Results compared to other polls
Trump is currently at 50.6% of the two-party vote in an average of recent polls in Ohio. Relative to her numbers in the Bloomberg poll Trump's poll average is 2.2 percentage points worse. This deviation is within the poll's margin of error, which suggests that the poll is not an outlier.
Results compared to the combined PollyVote forecast
The current PollyVote foresees Trump to gain 48.6% of the two-party vote in Ohio. That is, Polly's forecast is 4.2 points below her polling numbers. The PollyVote forecast is therefore outside the poll's sampling error.