538 (polls-plus) model shows Clinton in the lead
The 538 (polls-plus) model released an updated prediction of the election result. It currently predicts a major vote share of 51.0% for Clinton, and 49.0% for Trump. In comparison, on September 15, Clinton was predicted to gain 51.2% of the vote.
Putting the results in context
As any other method, models are subject to bias. Therefore, as a general rule, don't have too much faith in the results of a single econometric model. At least, one should check how a model's results compare to benchmark forecasts.
Comparison to other econometric models
An average of recent econometric models sees Clinton at 49.7% of the two-party vote. Compared to numbers in the 538 (polls-plus) model Clinton's econometric model average is 1.3 percentage points worse.
Comparison to the combined PollyVote
The current PollyVote predicts Clinton to gain 52.9% of the two-party vote. The results of the 538 (polls-plus) model for Clinton are thus 1.9 percentage points below the combined PollyVote.