538 (polls-plus) model shows Clinton in the lead

The 538 (polls-plus) model released an updated prediction of the election result. It currently predicts a major vote share of 51.0% for Clinton, and 49.0% for Trump. In comparison, on September 15, Clinton was predicted to gain 51.2% of the vote.

Putting the results in context

As any other method, models are subject to bias. Therefore, as a general rule, don't have too much faith in the results of a single econometric model. At least, one should check how a model's results compare to benchmark forecasts.

Comparison to other econometric models

An average of recent econometric models sees Clinton at 49.7% of the two-party vote. Compared to numbers in the 538 (polls-plus) model Clinton's econometric model average is 1.3 percentage points worse.

Comparison to the combined PollyVote

The current PollyVote predicts Clinton to gain 52.9% of the two-party vote. The results of the 538 (polls-plus) model for Clinton are thus 1.9 percentage points below the combined PollyVote.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

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