Results of a new poll administered by Elway were published. The poll asked participants from Washington for whom they will vote: Republican nominee Donald Trump or Democrat nominee Hillary Clinton.
Elway poll results
According to the results, 43.0% of interviewees said that they would give their vote to former First Lady Hillary Clinton, whereas 24.0% are going to vote for real estate developer Donald Trump.
The poll was carried out between August 9 and August 13. The sample size was 500 registered voters. There is a sampling error of +/-4.5 percentage points. Considering this error margin, the gap between both candidates is statistically significant.
Putting the results in context
As any other method, polls are subject to bias. Thus, as a general rule, don't have too much confidence in the results of a single poll. Rather than relying on results from single polls, we recommend to look at combined polls or, even better, the combined PollyVote forecast that relies on forecasts from different methods, each of which draws upon different data.
In order to make the results comparable to forecasts from other methods, we translate them into two-party vote shares. This procedure yields figures of 64.2% for Clinton and 35.8% for Trump.
Comparison to the combined PollyVote
The most recent PollyVote foresees Clinton to gain 57.5% of the two-party vote in Washington. This means that the PollyVote is 6.7 points below her polling numbers. The PollyVote forecast is thus outside the poll's sampling error.