Univ. Of Mary Washington released the results of a new poll, in which respondents from Virginia were asked for whom they will vote: Republican Donald Trump or Democrat Hillary Clinton.
Virginia is traditionally a battleground state, where the Democrats and the GOP have historically achieved similar levels of voter support. Hence, the election outcome in that state is regarded critical in determining who will win the majority of electoral votes.
Univ. Of Mary Washington poll results
The results show that 40.0% of respondents will cast a ballot for former First Lady Hillary Clinton, whereas 37.0% would vote for businessman Donald Trump.
The poll was carried out between September 6 and September 12. The sample size was 685 likely voters. There is a sampling error of +/-4.4 percentage points. Considering this error margin, the race is currently a statistical tie.
Putting the results in context
Single polls should be interpreted with caution, because they may incorporate substantial biases. Instead of trusting the results from single polls, one should consult combined polls or, even better, the combined PollyVote forecast that includes different methods and data.
For the following comparison, we convert Trump's and Clinton's raw poll numbers into shares of the two-party vote. This procedure results in figures of 52.0% for Clinton and 48.1% for Trump.
Results vs. other polls
Looking at an average of Virginia polls, Clinton's current two-party vote share is at 52.1%. This value is 0.1 percentage points higher than her corresponding numbers in the Univ. Of Mary Washington poll. This margin is within the poll's margin of error, which suggests that the poll is not an outlier.
Comparison to the combined PollyVote
The latest PollyVote predicts Clinton to gain 52.2% of the two-party vote in Virginia. Hence, Polly's prediction is 0.2 points above her polling numbers. The PollyVote forecast is therefore in line with the poll's margin of error.