Vermont: 21 points lead for Clinton in new Emerson poll

Results of a new poll carried out by Emerson were published. The poll asked participants from Vermont for whom they will vote: Donald·Trump or Hillary·Clinton.

According to the results, 47.0% of respondents would cast a ballot for former First Lady Hillary Clinton, whereas 26.0% would vote for real estate developer Donald Trump.

The poll was conducted from September 2 to September 5. A total of 600 likely voters responded. Taking into account the poll's error margin of +/-3.9 percentage points, the gap between both candidates is statistically significant.

Putting the results in context

As a general rule, however, you should not have too much faith in the results of single polls, because they sometimes contain large errors. At least, one should examine how a poll's results compare to benchmark forecasts.

For the following analysis, we translate Clinton's and Trump's raw poll numbers into two-party vote shares. This procedure results in figures of 64.4% for Clinton and 35.6% for Trump.

Results compared to the combined PollyVote forecast

The latest PollyVote foresees Clinton to gain 64.5% of the two-party vote in Vermont. That is, the PollyVote forecast is 0.1 points above her polling numbers. The PollyVote forecast is therefore within the poll's error margin.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

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