Results of a new poll carried out by Emerson were published. The poll asked participants from Vermont for whom they will vote: Donald·Trump or Hillary·Clinton.
Emerson poll results
According to the results, 47.0% of respondents would cast a ballot for former First Lady Hillary Clinton, whereas 26.0% would vote for real estate developer Donald Trump.
The poll was conducted from September 2 to September 5. A total of 600 likely voters responded. Taking into account the poll's error margin of +/-3.9 percentage points, the gap between both candidates is statistically significant.
Putting the results in context
As a general rule, however, you should not have too much faith in the results of single polls, because they sometimes contain large errors. At least, one should examine how a poll's results compare to benchmark forecasts.
For the following analysis, we translate Clinton's and Trump's raw poll numbers into two-party vote shares. This procedure results in figures of 64.4% for Clinton and 35.6% for Trump.
Results compared to the combined PollyVote forecast
The latest PollyVote foresees Clinton to gain 64.5% of the two-party vote in Vermont. That is, the PollyVote forecast is 0.1 points above her polling numbers. The PollyVote forecast is therefore within the poll's error margin.