Results of a new poll administered by UtahPolicy/Dan Jones were released. The poll asked participants from Utah for whom they will vote: Democrat candidate Hillary Clinton or Republican candidate Donald Trump.
UtahPolicy/Dan Jones poll results
Of those who answered the question, 27.0% said that they plan to vote for former New York Senator Hillary Clinton, whereas 36.0% said that they would give their vote to businessman Donald Trump.
The poll was carried out from June 8 to June 17 with 614 registered voters. Considering the poll's error margin of +/-4.0 percentage points, the gap between both candidates is statistically significant.
Putting the results in context
Individual polls often include substantial biases, and should be interpreted with caution. Rather, one should examine how a poll's results compare to benchmark forecasts.
In order to make the results comparable to forecasts from other methods, you can translate them into shares of the two-party vote. This procedure results in figures of 42.9% for Clinton and 57.1% for Trump. In the latest UtahPolicy/Dan Jones poll on April 5 Clinton obtained 50.0%, while Trump obtained only 50.0%.
Results compared to the combined PollyVote prediction
The latest PollyVote anticipates Trump to gain 60.9% of the two-party vote in Utah. This means that Polly's forecast is 3.8 points above his polling numbers. Again, a look at the poll's error margin reveals that this difference is negligible.