CBS News published the results of a new national poll. In this poll, interviewees were asked for whom they will vote: Hillary Clinton or Donald Trump.
CBS News poll results
Of those who replied, 46.0% said that they intend to vote for former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, whereas 44.0% indicated that they would give their vote to businessman Donald Trump.
This poll was conducted from September 9 to September 13, among a random sample of 1433 participants. Considering the poll's sampling error of +/-3.0 percentage points, the results reflect a statistical tie.
Putting the results in context
Single polls may incorporate large errors, which is why they should be interpreted with caution. Rather than trusting the results from single polls, the recommended strategy use combined polls or, even better, a combined forecast that relies on forecasts from different methods, each of which draws upon different data.
In order to make the results comparable to benchmark forecasts, one can convert them into shares of the two-party vote. This procedure yields values of 51.1% for Clinton and 48.9% for Trump. In the most recent CBS News poll on July 12 Clinton obtained only 50.0%, while Trump obtained 50.0%.
Comparison to other polls
If we look at an average of polls, Clinton's current two-party vote share is at 51.2%. In comparison to numbers in the CBS News poll Clinton's poll average is 0.1 percentage points higher. This margin is within the poll's error margin, which means that the poll is not an outlier.
Comparison to the combined PollyVote
The latest PollyVote predicts Clinton to gain 52.9% of the two-party vote. Hence, the PollyVote forecast is 1.8 points above polling numbers. Again, a look at the poll's sampling error suggests that this difference is negligible.