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Trump and Clinton neck-and-neck in new Issues and Leaders index model

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The Issues and Leaders model is included in the index models component of the combined PollyVote forecast. According to the model, Clinton will receive 51.3% of the two-party vote share, while Trump will win 48.7%.

Putting the results in context

Individual index models should be treated with caution, because they may contain large errors. Rather, one should examine how a index model's results compare to benchmark forecasts.

Results in comparison to other index models

An average of recent index models has Clinton at 54.1% of the two-party vote. This value is 2.8 percentage points higher than respective numbers in the Issues and Leaders index model.

The Issues and Leaders model compared with PollyVote's prediction

The most recent PollyVote expects Clinton to gain 53.0% of the two-party vote. PollyVote currently predicts Clinton to gain 1.7 percentage points more compared to the results of the Issues and Leaders model.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

Please let us know if you find any typos, missing words, or grammatical errors. Your feedback helps us to further improve the quality of the texts.

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