The Issues and Leaders model is included in the index models component of the combined PollyVote forecast. According to the model, Clinton will receive 51.3% of the two-party vote share, while Trump will win 48.7%.
Putting the results in context
Individual index models should be treated with caution, because they may contain large errors. Rather, one should examine how a index model's results compare to benchmark forecasts.
Results in comparison to other index models
An average of recent index models has Clinton at 54.1% of the two-party vote. This value is 2.8 percentage points higher than respective numbers in the Issues and Leaders index model.
The Issues and Leaders model compared with PollyVote's prediction
The most recent PollyVote expects Clinton to gain 53.0% of the two-party vote. PollyVote currently predicts Clinton to gain 1.7 percentage points more compared to the results of the Issues and Leaders model.