Texas: New Texas Lyceum poll shows Clinton behind by 6 points
By Texas Lyceum released the results of a new poll, in which respondents from Texas were asked for whom they will vote: Donald Trump or Hillary Clinton.
Texas Lyceum poll results
According to the results, 36.0% of participants indicated that they are going to vote for former First Lady Hillary Clinton, whereas 42.0% are going to vote for billionaire Donald Trump.
The poll was conducted from September 1 to September 11. A total of 502 likely voters responded.
Putting the results in context
In general, however, one should not have too much faith in the results of single polls, as they can incorporate large errors. Instead of trusting the results from single polls, the best practice scientific advice is to use combined polls or, even better, the combined PollyVote forecast that incorporates different methods and data.
To make the results comparable to benchmark forecasts, we convert them into shares of the two-party vote. This procedure results in figures of 46.2% for Clinton and 53.9% for Trump. In the latest Texas Lyceum poll on September 21 Clinton received 48.7%, while Trump received only 51.3%.
Results compared to other polls
Trump currently achieves 54.8% of the major two-party vote according to an average of recent polls in Texas. This value is 0.9 percentage points higher than his respective numbers in the Texas Lyceum poll.
Comparison to the combined PollyVote
The most recent PollyVote forecasts Trump to gain 56.0% of the two-party vote in Texas. Hence, the PollyVote forecast is 2.1 points above his polling numbers.
