Clout Research (R) released the results of a new poll, in which respondents from Oregon were asked for whom they will vote: Democrat Hillary Clinton or Republican Donald Trump.
Clout Research (R) poll results
Of those who answered the question, 42.0% said that they intend to vote for former New York Senator Hillary Clinton, while 44.0% declared that they would give their vote to real estate developer Donald Trump.
The poll was conducted from May 10 to May 13. A total of 657 likely voters responded. The error margin is +/-3.8 percentage points. This means that the levels of voter support for both candidates do not differ significantly.
Putting the results in context
Individual polls may include large errors, which is why they should be treated with caution. At the very least, one should examine how a poll's results compare to benchmark forecasts.
In order to make the results comparable to forecasts from benchmark methods, we translate them into shares of the two-party vote. The respective figures are 48.8% for Clinton and 51.2% for Trump. In the most recent Clout Research (R) poll on July 13 Clinton obtained 51.8%, while Trump obtained only 48.2%.
Comparison to the combined PollyVote
The latest PollyVote foresees Trump to gain 41.2% of the two-party vote in Oregon. This means that Polly's combined forecast is 10.0 points below her polling numbers. Again, a look at the poll's margin of error reveals that this difference is significant.