Results of a new poll conducted by Civitas (R) were distributed. The poll asked interviewees from North Carolina for whom they will vote: Democrat candidate Hillary Clinton or Republican candidate Donald Trump.
Civitas (R) poll results
According to the results, former First Lady Hillary Clinton and businessman Donald Trump can draw on the exact same level of support, each with 42.0% of the vote.
The poll was conducted from September 11 to September 12 with 600 likely voters. The margin of error is +/-4.0 percentage points. This means that the levels of voter support for the candidates of both parties do not differ significantly.
Putting the results in context
Single polls often contain large biases, and should be interpreted with caution. Rather than trusting the results from single polls, the best practice is to consult combined polls or, even better, a combined forecast that includes different methods and data.
To make the results comparable to forecasts from other methods, you can convert them into shares of the two-party vote. The results of the actual poll mean 50.0 % for Clinton and 50.0 % for Trump concerning the two-party vote share.
Results compared to other polls
Clinton can currently count on 50.3% of the major two-party vote according to an average of recent polls in North Carolina. In comparison to the average forecast of other polls Clinton performed 0.3 percentage points worse in the poll. This difference is outside the poll's error margin, which means that the poll is an outlier.
The poll in comparison with PollyVote's forecast
The most recent PollyVote predicts Clinton to gain 50.3% and Trump 49.7% of the two-party vote in North Carolina. Clinton has 0.3 percentage points less when the results of the poll are compared to the combined PollyVote forecast for North Carolina. The PollyVote forecast is therefore outside the poll's sampling error.